OECD — "Global Long-Run Economic Scenarios: 2025 Update"
Sep 2025. Extends through 2100.
Original: https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/economic-outlook/long-run-economic-scenarios-2025-update.html
PDF: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/09/oecd-global-long-run-economic-scenarios_d58550c4/00353678-en.pdf

BASELINE PROJECTIONS:
- OECD+G20 trend real GDP growth: ~3% post-COVID → 1.5% by 2060.
- Global potential output per capita growth: ~2% today → 1.25% by 2050.
- India's potential growth stays above US throughout.
- China's potential growth falls below US by 2040–45, below zero by 2070–75.
- China remains world's largest economy until mid-2060s, then India.
- Two regions gaining global output share: South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: 3% of global output today → ~13% by 2100.

SCENARIO EMPHASIS: 2025 update centers on the carbon mitigation vs. climate damage trade-off — climate is no longer a side variable in OECD's long-run modeling.

IMPLICATIONS FOR OTHER FORECASTS:
- OECD baseline (~1.5%/yr by 2060) is *between* BCG's Battling Blocs (1.8%) and Climate Coalition (2.5%) — i.e. BCG's baseline is OECD's pessimistic case, BCG's downside is below OECD baseline.
- OECD agrees with Zeihan on demographic deceleration but rejects collapse; agrees with McKinsey that growth slows but rejects "near-halving."
- Confirms the *power shift to South Asia + Sub-Saharan Africa* that most US/Europe-centric scenarios under-weight.