US National Intelligence Council — "Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World"
March 2021. NIC 2021-02339. Unclassified.
Original URL: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf
(.gov blocks programmatic fetch — content below from intelligence.gov summary, knowww.eu node, New Security Beat, National Academies appendix.)

Method: identifies four structural forces (demographics, environment, economics, technology) plus five "emerging dynamics" (societies, states, international system). Builds five scenarios at 2040 horizon.

--- SCENARIO 1: RENAISSANCE OF DEMOCRACIES ---
Open democracies led by US and allies experience resurgence. Public-private partnerships drive rapid tech advances. Authoritarian states (China, Russia) stagnate under their own contradictions. Incomes rise, quality of life improves.

--- SCENARIO 2: A WORLD ADRIFT ---
International system directionless, chaotic, volatile. International rules largely ignored. China is leading but not dominant. Multipolar, no consensus on global problems.

--- SCENARIO 3: COMPETITIVE COEXISTENCE ---
US and China prosper, compete for dominance, manage tensions. Economic interdependence persists alongside rivalry. Bifurcated tech ecosystems but no decoupling collapse.

--- SCENARIO 4: SEPARATE SILOS ---
Globalization fractures. Self-sufficient regional blocs form around US, China, EU, Russia, India. Supply chains regionalize. Information ecosystems diverge.

--- SCENARIO 5: TRAGEDY AND MOBILIZATION ---
Bottom-up revolutionary change after global food/environmental catastrophe (collapse of fisheries, climate-driven crop failures in late 2030s). NGOs and multilaterals develop unprecedented standard-setting power. Fossil-fuel-dependent countries adapt slowest. EU and China lead reforms.

CROSS-CUTTING:
- Three scenarios pivot on US-China dynamic; two assume that dynamic gets pre-empted by other crises.
- Scenarios 4 and 5 closely match BCG's Battling Blocs and Climate Coalition respectively.
- NIC takes "Tragedy and Mobilization" more seriously than BCG: assumes the trigger event happens, not just risk of it.