IEA — "Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario" (NZE) / "Net Zero Roadmap" (2023 update)
Original: https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050
PDF: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/deebef5d-0c34-4539-9d0c-10b13d840027/NetZeroby2050-ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector_CORR.pdf
(IEA blocks programmatic fetch — content from IEA web pages summarized.)

Status: one specific pathway compatible with 1.5°C, not the only one. Treated by many as a normative scenario.

KEY NUMBERS:
- Warming peaks ~1.65°C, returns to 1.5°C by 2100 — but only if currently-unproven carbon removal scales massively in second half of century.
- Renewables installed capacity ~4× current by 2035.
- Electricity becomes >50% of total final energy consumption and ~⅔ of useful energy by 2050.
- Four pillars: clean-energy electrification, energy efficiency, low-emissions fuels, methane abatement.
- Solar and wind provide largest growth in low-emissions supply.

CONTRADICTIONS WITH SMIL (see smil-halfway-to-2050.pdf): IEA NZE implies ~$9.2T/yr of energy investment to 2050 (~10% of world GDP). Smil argues historical transitions are slower; no transition has been completed at this speed; oil took 50 years to reach 10% of market share.

CONTRADICTIONS WITH HANDMER (see handmer-terraform-whitepaper.html): Handmer projects 95% of energy downstream of solar PV by 2042 — *earlier and more total* than IEA's already-aggressive NZE. Implies IEA is anchored to incumbent industries' deployment rates.